Irish Unification Plebiscite Must Not Transform Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Experts Warn

Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."